A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few politicians or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. Both authors two articles that strive for objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless official who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses something to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster should join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
